S***@noaa.gov
2021-02-22 18:00:24 UTC
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Feb 22 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 February 2021
Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N21, Lo=280, class/area
Axx/30 on 19 Feb) produced a B1 flare on 19/0901 UTC, the largest of
the period. Region 2802 (N19, Lo=33, class/area Bxo/15 on 18 Feb)
decayed to plage on 19 Feb.
A filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE
quadrant of the visible disk. A subsequent partial-halo CME
signature followed the eruption, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested the bulk of the plasma headed downstream of Earth;
however, a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is likely on
23-24 Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available
coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels. Normal to moderate levels were observed from
15-20 Feb. Activity from a negative polarity CH HSS increased peak
electron flux to high levels on 21 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Active levels were reached on 16 Feb and 19-21 Feb. Unsettled levels
were reached on 15 Feb and 17-18 Feb. All periods of elevated
geomagnetic activity was in response to multiple, negative polarity
CH HSSs.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 February - 20 March 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are
expected on 22-26 Feb, 02-04 Mar and 19-20 Mar due to influence from
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels expected for
the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on
01 Mar and 18-19 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Active conditions are
likely 23-24 Feb due to anticipated onset of a CME from 20 Feb.
Active conditions due to CH HSS influence are likely on 22 Feb, 02
Mar, 06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15 Mar and 20 Mar. Unsettled conditions are
likely on 25 Feb, 03 Mar and 16 Mar. The remainder of the outlook
period is expected to be at quiet levels.
:Issued: 2021 Feb 22 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 February 2021
Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N21, Lo=280, class/area
Axx/30 on 19 Feb) produced a B1 flare on 19/0901 UTC, the largest of
the period. Region 2802 (N19, Lo=33, class/area Bxo/15 on 18 Feb)
decayed to plage on 19 Feb.
A filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE
quadrant of the visible disk. A subsequent partial-halo CME
signature followed the eruption, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested the bulk of the plasma headed downstream of Earth;
however, a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is likely on
23-24 Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available
coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels. Normal to moderate levels were observed from
15-20 Feb. Activity from a negative polarity CH HSS increased peak
electron flux to high levels on 21 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Active levels were reached on 16 Feb and 19-21 Feb. Unsettled levels
were reached on 15 Feb and 17-18 Feb. All periods of elevated
geomagnetic activity was in response to multiple, negative polarity
CH HSSs.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 February - 20 March 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are
expected on 22-26 Feb, 02-04 Mar and 19-20 Mar due to influence from
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels expected for
the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on
01 Mar and 18-19 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Active conditions are
likely 23-24 Feb due to anticipated onset of a CME from 20 Feb.
Active conditions due to CH HSS influence are likely on 22 Feb, 02
Mar, 06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15 Mar and 20 Mar. Unsettled conditions are
likely on 25 Feb, 03 Mar and 16 Mar. The remainder of the outlook
period is expected to be at quiet levels.